Atlanta Braves offer the best value in the MLB World Series futures market
Posted on: September 10, 2022, 06:29h.
Last update on: September 10, 2022, 9:09 a.m.
There’s less than a month left in the MLB regular season, and while we know who will make most of the playoffs, there’s still some exciting action on the field to determine where teams will be seeded.
Some teams are hoping they can get through a hot September in the October playoffs and win the World Series crown. In Atlanta, the Braves (87-51), defending World Series champions, entered Saturday victorious in eight of the last 10 games. It’s a good enough streak that they could have passed the New York Mets (87-52) by half. -game in the National League East.
These two teams will almost certainly advance to the playoffs. But a three-game series later this month in Atlanta between the two contenders will likely decide who gets the division title and a major bye to the divisional round of the playoffs.
While the Mets have the easiest schedule, the Braves play better baseball. From a betting perspective, the Braves also appear to be the best value for bettors who want to make a World Series futures bet. This is based on World Series projections currently available on baseball analytics site FanGraphs and sports betting odds published on comparison website Oddschecker.
Bettors underestimate the odds of the brave
FanGraphs gives 15 teams a chance to win the World Series, from favorites Los Angeles Dodgers (17.7% projected odds) to the Minnesota Twins (0.3%).
Casino.org then compared FanGraphs’ projections with the best odds available from a regulated bookmaker. The table showing all the odds, along with the best and worst values, is below.
The best value, by far, is the Atlanta Braves.
The Braves have a 15.5% chance of winning the World Series, according to FanGraphs. In the meantime, you can still get them on BetMGM at +900 to defend their title. These odds are equal to an implied probability of 10%, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than FanGraphs’ projections.
The second best value pick is the San Diego Padres (77-62), who currently hold the second wild card in the National League. They aren’t as likely to win the World Series, as FanGraphs only gives them a 5.6% chance. But their odds of +3600 at FanDuel equates to an implied probability of a 2.7% chance.
Favorite bets have no value
The Dodgers (94-43), who have the best record in MLB, have a 17.7% projection by FanGraphs. But the best odds available for them are only +360 at DraftKings. These odds translate to an implied probability of 21.7%, which is 4 percentage points higher than FanGraphs’ estimate.
If you’re looking for value in the American League, don’t rely on favorites. The Houston Astros (89-49) are considered the most likely AL team to win it all at 13.4%. But the best odds for them is +410 at FanDuel – which equates to a 19.6% probability.
Meanwhile, after a torrid start to the season, the New York Yankees (84-56) have cooled down. They will still make the playoffs, but FanGraphs only gives them a 7.8% chance of winning their 28th World Series. But the best odds available for them are +600 at Unibet and Bet Rivers. This represents an implied probability of 14.3%.